I work in the deterrence field, grant it the topic is terrorism, and I am not a lawyer, but the principles are the same. First, does the ICC have any legal authorities over non state actors, who commits almost all mass atrocities within a state border? One must realize mass atrocities happen as a result of power politics to either change a state action or (as in Africa) tribe against tribe civil war. Deterrence is key to preventing conflict and enhancing security. More importantly, it requires influencing political and military choices, dissuading it from taking action by making leaders understand the cost of the action is too great, is of no use, or unnecessary. Deterrence is also about credibility, to either prevent an attack, or respond decisively to an attack to discourage further action. Deterrence factors are either economic, the big stick approach, or a the carrot and stick approach. I presented at the HAGUE: Global Society of Victimology on deterrence factors for human rights and transitional justice May 2012. One of the things I discussed was a unity of effort that:
Prioritize Prevention—deterrence activities should always shape the operational environment and keep the day to day activities below the threshold of armed conflict. Need to tailor deterrence to fit the particular actors and situations in order to dissuade the adversaries. Therefore, one must look beyond quick solutions to address root causes of state fragility, strengthening indigenous capacities, especially those of women, to prevent and resolve conflict supporting the peacebuilding capabilities or regional organizations. Don't look for cookie cutter solutions, it will required an international and regional integrated diplomatic, political, economic, military, and legal approach that leverages their capabilities to deterrence conflicting parties.
Reshape Perceptions and influence in order to reconcile—here one will need a strategic plan to engage with the leaders. Mass atrocities do not occur without the sanctions of its leaders.
Synchronize strategic plans, leverage the resources and relationships of NGO, IGO, PVOs to apply local pressure to deter activity. When I was in Afghan this worked, have to change the minds of people against the protagonists leaders.
I submit, you must look at not only the victim and offender relationship but also the leadership component or the cycle of violence will continue. Second, I am completing my Doctorate of Global Leadership, my dissertation will investigate the leadership traits and competences of the ICC and transitional justice mechanisms, to deal with this specific issue. I believe the ICC may lack the credibility to deter an action because the mechanisms do not have the necessary teeth, leadership backbone, and political will to create an international strategic plan of deterrence factors. This is one reason I am wanting to shape my dissertation to address the leadership within the ICC. Surprisingly, I am finding very little --- like nothing that remotely addresses intercultural leadership competences for ICC judges or prosecutors. Therefore, I would propose developing a leadership framework that will assist assessing decision makers to appoint judges with the right temperament, diplomatic leadership, cultural leadership, and political leadership competences to render effective decisions. Presently, it seems that the only qualification for appointment is a law degree and the right tribal/political pedigree connections. How is that perceived that those qualifications make for an effective judge or prosecutor? Let me mind you --I am not a lawyer. Interested in your opinion. Andrew
James D. Fearon
Professor of Political Science, Stanford University
Comment on the Deterrence Lecture Question: “To what extent is the deterrence of mass atrocities an attainable goal of the ICC?”
I work in the deterrence field, grant it the topic is terrorism, and I am not a lawyer, but the principles are the same. First, does the ICC have any legal authorities over non state actors, who commits almost all mass atrocities within a state border? One must realize mass atrocities happen as a result of power politics to either change a state action or (as in Africa) tribe against tribe civil war. Deterrence is key to preventing conflict and enhancing security. More importantly, it requires influencing political and military choices, dissuading it from taking action by making leaders understand the cost of the action is too great, is of no use, or unnecessary. Deterrence is also about credibility, to either prevent an attack, or respond decisively to an attack to discourage further action. Deterrence factors are either economic, the big stick approach, or a the carrot and stick approach. I presented at the HAGUE: Global Society of Victimology on deterrence factors for human rights and transitional justice May 2012. One of the things I discussed was a unity of effort that:
I submit, you must look at not only the victim and offender relationship but also the leadership component or the cycle of violence will continue. Second, I am completing my Doctorate of Global Leadership, my dissertation will investigate the leadership traits and competences of the ICC and transitional justice mechanisms, to deal with this specific issue. I believe the ICC may lack the credibility to deter an action because the mechanisms do not have the necessary teeth, leadership backbone, and political will to create an international strategic plan of deterrence factors. This is one reason I am wanting to shape my dissertation to address the leadership within the ICC. Surprisingly, I am finding very little --- like nothing that remotely addresses intercultural leadership competences for ICC judges or prosecutors. Therefore, I would propose developing a leadership framework that will assist assessing decision makers to appoint judges with the right temperament, diplomatic leadership, cultural leadership, and political leadership competences to render effective decisions. Presently, it seems that the only qualification for appointment is a law degree and the right tribal/political pedigree connections. How is that perceived that those qualifications make for an effective judge or prosecutor? Let me mind you --I am not a lawyer. Interested in your opinion. Andrew