The ICC Has Become Less Political—And That’s a Problem
Procedurally, the key is to provide the Prosecutor (and future prosecutors) a roadmap to contexts in which the Court can be effective. In my view, a critical substantive element of this guidance would be limiting the Court’s interactions with non-member states. The Court has difficulty enough ensuring the cooperation of states that have joined the Court and committed to its processes. Engaging in confrontations with countries that have declined to join is a bridge too far.
Summary
In its more than two decades of operation, the International Criminal Court has evolved in several notable ways. One of the most consequential changes is the increased willingness of the Court to conduct investigations that involved states opposed to it and to assert jurisdiction over the nationals of non-member states. This marks a change from the Court’s first decade of operation, and is best thought of as an apolitical turn in the Court’s work. Political deference to states has yielded to a desire to pursue the Court’s mandate even when key states oppose its role. This shift has now produced significant clashes with powerful countries, including the United States, that may threaten the Court’s viability. I argue that the Court’s member states should guide the Prosecutor.
Argument
The advent of the International Criminal Court marked a milestone in the effort to manage international relations through law. When it started operating in 2003, the ICC became a new wing in a broader international legal architecture that included the venerable International Court of Justice, the newer Law of the Sea tribunal, the World Trade Organization’s dispute resolution system, and a growing cadre of regional courts.
All these institutions exist in a competitive system of sovereign states and they have struggled in various ways to assert the primacy of law. Because the ICC deals with situations of violent conflict and has the power to criminally prosecute even senior leaders, its challenge may be the most acute. With a record that now exceeds two decades, it is possible to assess how the ICC has managed this environment and to what extent the institution should be considered political.
In this brief comment, I argue that the ICC has, over the course of its existence, become less political in key respects, and that this trend has created major, potentially existential, challenges for the Court. In making this argument, I focus primarily on the Court’s situation and case selection processes.
Argument Continued
A Typology of Political Behavior By the Court
Consideration of the ICC’s political nature benefits from disaggregating what it means for the Court to operate politically. A working definition might be that the Court acts politically when key actors make decisions based at least in part on political considerations rather than purely legal ones. With this basic definition in mind, it is possible to construct a rough typology of different court approaches to the political environment, moving from the least political influence to most:
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An Apolitical Court: The legalist expectation is that Court officials should avoid political considerations at all costs. In this view, the Court should proceed with no reference to the political realities that surround it, the preferences of involved governments, or the likely political impacts of Court action. As a legal body, the Court should follow the law where it leads. To the extent there are choices to be made about where to direct Court resources, those should be made in legal terms rather than political ones.
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A Pragmatic Court: Ignoring the political environment entirely may not be possible, especially given the Court’s broad jurisdiction and limited resources. Court officials employing a pragmatic approach might consider the political landscape, but in a quite limited way. Specifically, Court actors could assess the level of support from the territorial state and perhaps neighboring states, in determining where to open investigations. In a situation of scare resources, Court officials might decide to prioritize investigations where there is a more accommodating environment, but only as a way of determining the viability of an investigation and the likelihood of successful prosecutions. A pragmatic approach might also consider the political situation at other junctures. For example, the political environment could be relevant in deciding when to issue an arrest warrant and whether to do so publicly.
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A Strategic Court: In this approach, Court actors might take political considerations into account for broader purposes, including building up the Court and maintaining good relations with key states and groups of states. Given the ICC’s dependence on state support, the Court might therefore take into account the interests of states in developing a prosecutorial strategy and in selecting situations to investigate. For example, the Court might seek regional balance in its investigations. It might prioritize investigations with broad international support rather than those that states do not support.
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A Captured Court: At the far end of the continuum would be a politicized Court which works to advance the interests of certain states or political groups over others. The most extreme version would be one that takes political direction from certain states or outside actors on all significant decisions. A more subtle process in which the Court internalizes the preferences of powerful actors is also possible.1
These categories are crude, and the boundaries between them are porous, but they at least offer a mechanism for thinking conceptually about the Court and its reactions to the political environment.
Potential Mechanisms of Political Control
This categorization leaves open the question of what actor, or what combination of actors, determines the balance that the Court strikes between legal and political considerations. Several quite different parts of the ICC system deserve attention:
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States Parties: As with most international organizations, the ICC’s member states have significant responsibilities in funding, staffing, and managing the organization. Working through the Assembly of States Parties (ASP), member states with enough influence may be able to alter the Court’s trajectory, including through budget deliberations and the selection of the prosecutor and judges.
Outside of their ASP functions, member states have other levers of influence. The first is the political, diplomatic, and even military support that they offer to the Court. This support could be proffered or not depending on the political utility of the Court’s activity. For states with access to important sources of intelligence, for example, the decision to provide or withhold information could alter the course of an ICC investigation. Member states can also choose how to interpret their legal obligations to the Court when it comes to arresting suspects. Finally, and most dramatically, member states can threaten to leave the Court.
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The U.N. Security Council: It may seem odd to consider the United Nations Security Council (S.C.) as a part of the Court system, but the Rome Statute accords its members significant powers related to the Court: specifically, the referral and deferral powers. To date, there have only been two S.C. referrals (Darfur, Sudan in 2005; and Libya in 2011) and there have been no deferrals of specific investigations or charges. The S.C.’s generally non-interventionist posture likely says more about that body’s political divisions than about respect for the Court’s independence. Nonetheless, the S.C.’s relative absence as an instrument of political control is an important feature of the ICC’s early history.
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The Judges: In terms of situation selection, the Rome Statute gives the judges responsibility for authorizing proprio motu investigations and that function, in particular, might be a mechanism for them to assess the political wisdom of Court action. On their own, judges could evaluate whether a requested investigation (and particularly one not referred by states) is viable and wise. Presumably, judges could make similar determinations in considering whether to confirm charges against individuals when there might be significant political implications. To date, there is little evidence that judges have interpreted their role in this way. This is not surprising: while some of the judges have diplomatic backgrounds, many do not. There is not an easy hook in the Rome Statute for these kinds of considerations, and the judges have not developed their own doctrine for doing so.
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The Office of the Prosecutor: This survey of Court actors arrives finally at the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP). The Prosecutor is decisive in determining what investigations the Court will pursue and what cases it will bring. The Prosecutor’s room to maneuver is of course bounded in certain respects, most significantly by the Court’s jurisdictional structure (so long as those limits are policed effectively by the judges). The Court’s “trigger mechanisms” also give states and the judges a measure of control. Yet even with these guardrails, the Prosecutor has an ample zone of discretion, which is fertile ground for the mixing of legal and political determinations.
From Strategic Accommodation to Apolitical
What does the record of the Court’s first several decades show about the Court’s approach to politics? The OTP, in particular, showed notable political deference during its first decade of operation. This pattern manifested itself in a preference for situations in which the territorial state had invited Court involvement or in which the S.C. had authorized a Court investigation. In these situations, the Court moved quickly to launch investigations. In less promising contexts, the Court either declined to investigate or moved at a glacial pace.
But this approach changed markedly in the Court’s next decade. The Prosecutor used the proprio motu power to initiate investigations with increased frequency. Other investigations were begun in the face of opposition from the territorial state. Several of these investigations touched on the direct interests of powerful countries or were initiated in the face of opposition from the territorial state. The Afghanistan inquiry included scrutiny of U.S. conduct and led to a clash between the Court and the first Trump administration (the current prosecutor ultimately sidelined that aspect of the investigation). The investigations in Georgia and Ukraine put the Court in the position of asserting jurisdiction over Russian nationals. In Ukraine, the Court’s investigation produced charges against Russian president Vladimir Putin and other senior military leaders. The Palestine investigation—fiercely opposed by the U.S.—ultimately produced charges against both Hamas leaders and Israel’s serving prime minister and former defense minister.
The difference between the first phase of the Court’s operation and the second is not surprising when one views the Court as a new institution establishing itself in an often hostile environment. As the Court gained confidence, it moved more assertively into a range of situations with more complicated international political contexts. Employing the typology above, the evidence strongly suggests that the Prosecutor’s behavior has moved from something close to the strategic variant to a more apolitical approach.
(There is an alternative reading of the Court’s trajectory that merits consideration. One could characterize the shift described as the result of countervailing political pressure rather than a move to apolitical situation selection. A number of African countries argued that the Court in its early years focused unfairly on African conflicts and ignored situations in other regions. That perception ultimately led to the threat of coordinated African withdrawals from the Court, which may have influenced the Prosecutor’s approach to situation selection.)
Importantly, none of the other Court actors described above appears to have opposed this shift in the Prosecutor’s strategy in any sustained way. While there have been disagreements—sometimes quite sharp—between the judges and the OTP, they have not centered on the question of the political context for investigations. For its part, the S.C.’s involvement has been episodic, and its inability to use Rome Statute Article 16 deferrals has greatly limited its function as a political check on the Court.
From a legalist perspective, the Court’s transition from a strategic orientation to an apolitical one is entirely welcome—and the only viable path for the Court. In asserting the primacy of law, this view is both morally powerful and operationally simplifying for the Court, which need not concern itself with difficult political judgments. From this perspective, lack of state support for certain investigations and even strong political blowback are the inevitable byproducts of defending and advancing international law.
From what could be described as an institutionalist perspective, the picture is more complicated. Making international law effective in the long term may involve a complex alchemy of political and legal judgments and a regular assessment of what is possible. A Court that moves farther than political conditions allow may actually set back the international law project significantly. In this view, the Court’s decision to pursue confrontations with powerful states, and particularly those that have not joined the Court, represents a remarkable gamble with the institution’s future.
Wherever one lands on those questions, it is clear that the Court is now enmeshed in a struggle—possibly an existential one—with powerful countries. U.S. sanctions on the Court, in particular, have the potential to threaten the Court’s personnel and its basic operations. There is already evidence that some companies and organizations have ceased working with the Court to avoid being entangled in the sanctions.2 How extreme the danger is will depend on the Trump administration’s implementation of its sanctions regime and the response of member states.
Sanctions aside, there are other worrying signs for the Court. Several member countries have either defied arrest warrants or signaled that they might not respect them in the future. In October 2024, Mongolia welcomed Putin for a state visit. Even in Europe, where support for the Court has often been strongest, fissures have emerged. Angered by the charges against Israeli leaders, Hungary has initiated its withdrawal from the Court. Polish leaders suggested that they would allow Netanyahu to visit the country, arrest warrant notwithstanding.3 French officials said that Netanyahu enjoys head-of-state immunity and equivocated on whether it would carry out an arrest.4 Germany too has been coy about whether it would respect the arrest warrants against Israeli officials. Italy recently expelled a former Libyan official subject to a Court arrest warrant rather than dispatching him to The Hague.5
Building Guardrails
If the ICC is indeed on a dangerous path, the question becomes whether there is any reasonable exit strategy. Finding one will not be easy. The Rome Statute has established a framework that includes jurisdiction over non-member states and provides no simple way for the Court to limit its own reach. In particular, the Statute gives the Prosecutor very little guidance on how to select situations and cases, and the precedent of recent investigations will be difficult to avoid.
If a change in course is possible, it would likely include several elements. Procedurally, the key is to provide the Prosecutor (and future prosecutors) a roadmap to contexts in which the Court can be effective. In my view, a critical substantive element of this guidance would be limiting the Court’s interactions with non-member states. The Court has difficulty enough ensuring the cooperation of states that have joined the Court and committed to its processes. Engaging in confrontations with countries that have declined to join is a bridge too far.
In theory, the S.C. could enforce a limitation on Court activities. Using its Rome Statute Article 16 powers broadly, it could freeze Court investigations that it deems unhelpful or politically unwise. If the S.C. was assiduous in reviewing Court activity and pausing any unwanted investigations, it could effectively become the steering body for the institution. However, the politics of the S.C. make this exceedingly unlikely.
A more promising path would be for a group of the Court’s most important member states to negotiate a new set of procedures to guide the Prosecutor.6 With the threat of debilitating U.S. sanctions in the background, the ICC’s member states could forge either an implementing agreement or some code of conduct that prioritizes certain investigations over others and emphasizes situations where there is a reasonable prospect for success. As Todd Buchwald has argued, there are several Rome Statute provisions that member states could use to narrow the Court’s aperture, including the concept of “gravity,” the Court’s complementary provisions, and its interpretation of head-of-state immunity.7
A decision to restrain the Court—and to confine its reach to member states, in particular—would be a bitter pill for many Court members to swallow. It would mean reconceptualizing the Court as one for its member states and tempering, at least for now, its aspirations to universality. For the strongest advocates of international justice, changes like these would mark a significant defeat for the Court and the international law project more broadly. Yet a more restrained Court and Prosecutor could also focus on situations in which there is a chance of success and to avoid those likely to create confrontations it cannot win.
Endnotes — (click the footnote reference number, or ↩ symbol, to return to location in text).
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1.
I am using a slightly modified version of a typology developed in Rough Justice: The International Criminal Court in a World of Power Politics 17–20 (OUP 2014), paywall. ↩
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2.
See , Trump’s Sanctions on ICC Prosecutor Have Halted Tribunal’s Work, AP, May 15, 2025, available online. ↩
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3.
Poland Clears Israel’s Netanyahu to Visit for Auschwitz Memorial Despite War Crimes Indictment, CBS News, Jan. 10, 2025, available online. ↩
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4.
Press Release, Israel—International Criminal Court, France Dipl. (Nov. 27, 2024), available online; see also , France’s Convoluted and Contradictory ICC Immunity Position, Lawfare (Dec. 10, 2024), available online. ↩
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5.
Italy, Libya, and the Failure of State Cooperation with the International Criminal Court in the Elmasry Arrest Case, Just Security (Jan. 30, 2025), available online. ↩
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6.
Drawing upon Court in a Storm: Israel, the ICC, and the Trump Administration, Lawfare (Feb. 6, 2025), available online. ↩
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7.
Part I: What Kinds of Situations and Cases Should the ICC Pursue? The Independent Expert Review of the ICC and the Question of Aperture, Just Security (Nov. 30, 2020), available online. ↩
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Suggested Citation for this Comment:
The ICC Has Become Less Political—And That’s a Problem, ICC Forum (Jun. 19, 2025), available at https://iccforum.com/politics#Bosco.
,Suggested Citation for this Issue Generally:
Is the ICC a Political Institution?, ICC Forum (Jun. 19, 2025), available at https://iccforum.com/politics.