I think a speculative answer to this question is impossible. I think it will work out different in every situation; in some cases there will be peace, in some there will not. Some will be deterred, others won't. Empirically, it seems as if no matter how many safeguards are set up against atrocities, they still seem to happen. Can the ICC change all this?
Yes and no. The ICC,as a deterrent institution in this case, can only do so much. Especially considering the lack of signatory state cooperation, it is a relatively weak deterrent at that. To become a better deterrent for peace, the ICC must (1) in some way really make a leap forward in cooperation and (2) get some jaws. People must actually fear the ICC. A leader will do whatever he/she wants as long as it is not believed that he/she is accountable. The ICC is a great organization to put some accountability on leaders, but as of now the arm is not strong enough.
William R. Pace
Convenor; Coalition for the ICC (CICC)
Comment on the Peace Lecture Question: “To what extent can the ICC advance peace around the world?”
I think a speculative answer to this question is impossible. I think it will work out different in every situation; in some cases there will be peace, in some there will not. Some will be deterred, others won't. Empirically, it seems as if no matter how many safeguards are set up against atrocities, they still seem to happen. Can the ICC change all this?
Yes and no. The ICC,as a deterrent institution in this case, can only do so much. Especially considering the lack of signatory state cooperation, it is a relatively weak deterrent at that. To become a better deterrent for peace, the ICC must (1) in some way really make a leap forward in cooperation and (2) get some jaws. People must actually fear the ICC. A leader will do whatever he/she wants as long as it is not believed that he/she is accountable. The ICC is a great organization to put some accountability on leaders, but as of now the arm is not strong enough.